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NFL odds, picks for Week 17: Proven computer model loving Ravens, Chiefs

Entering the Week 17 NFL schedule, over half the league’s teams are eliminated from postseason contention. However, there are still 16 games on Sunday and a number of playoff teams will also be resting their starters, so understanding where to find value among the available college football odds could be a difficult proposition. The Seahawks (-13.5) are going to be an NFC Wild Card team no matter what, so they could be cautious in Week 17 against a Cardinals team that may benefit from a loss to ensure they get the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, the Titans host the Colts in a win-and-you’re-in Sunday Night Football game against the Colts as three-point underdogs. With NFL odds and lines on the move, check out the top NFL picks and predictions for Week 17 from SportsLine’s advanced computer model before locking in any plays of your own.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 17 on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 159-78 on the season, ranking in the top five on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has examined the latest Week 17 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 17 NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top Week 17 NFL picks the model recommends: the Ravens (-6) cover the spread against the Browns as they look to wrap up the AFC North. 

Baltimore’s Week 16 win over the Chargers, coupled with the Steelers‘ loss to the Saints, put the Ravens in control of their own destiny in the division entering the final week of the regular season. Even against a much-improved Cleveland team, the model projects the Ravens roll to a decisive win that covers the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations. The Over (41) also has plenty of value because that hits in well over half of simulations.

Another one of the Week 17 NFL predictions from the model: the Chiefs cover as 13.5-point favorites over the Raiders at home. 

Kansas City has already clinched its spot in the AFC playoff picture, but the Chiefs could drop all the way to the No. 5 seed with a loss and will be the No. 1 seed with a win. So there is still plenty of incentive for the Chiefs on Sunday. 

And against a Raiders squad that benefits from a loss to improve their draft positioning and can identify building blocks moving forward under Jon Gruden, it’s easy to see the Chiefs running away with this one. In particular, the model expects Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to put up monster numbers against a porous Raiders defense.

The model also has a strong pick for the season-defining matchup between the Colts and Titans, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend, shaking up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 17? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6.5, 41.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9, 44.5)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13.5, 45)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 44.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5, 40.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 51.5)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5, 42)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 41)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 45.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 40.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+6.5, 41.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5, 38.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 49)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5, 52.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 43.5)

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