NFL odds, picks for AFC, NFC Championship Games: Proven computer model says go under in Chiefs vs. Patriots

If home-field advantage is worth about a field goal, then oddsmakers view the teams playing in the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game as virtually even. In the first game on Sunday’s schedule for the 2019 NFL Playoffs, the Saints, playing at home in the Superdome, are three-point favorites against the Rams in the latest NFL odds. The Chiefs also have a field goal edge against the Patriots in a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium. And with the Kansas City weather forecast improving and temperatures expected to stay in the 20s on Sunday, the total in that game is back up to to 56 after dipping as low as 54.5. NFL odds and spreads could continue to shift as kickoffs approach on Sunday, so before locking in any NFL picks of your own, be sure to check out the playoff predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the championship round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-1 on all against-the-spread picks in the 2019 NFL playoffs. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its NFL picks and predictions are in. One of the top championship round NFL picks the model recommends: The over (56.5) hits when the Rams travel to the Superdome to take on the Saints at 3:05 p.m. ET in the 2019 NFC Championship Game. 

This total has inched down half-a-point, creating even more value on the over in the simulations. The Rams are accustomed to seeing some large totals this season, but they’ve regularly cleared them. They played in 14 games with an over-under of greater than 48 and went over in nine of them. That includes the Rams vs. Saints matchup that produced 80 total points in a November game where Vegas expected 58. 

With C.J. Anderson teaming up with Todd Gurley in the backfield, the Rams have yet another weapon for this matchup. SportsLine’s model is calling for that duo to account for around 200 yards of total offense, while quarterbacks Jared Goff and Drew Brees both throw for around 300 yards as the over hits in well over half of simulations. 

Another one of the championship round NFL predictions from the model: The under (56) hits when the Patriots travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs. 

As the Chiefs vs. Patriots forecast has shifted, so too has the over-under. It opened at 57, but fell 2.5 points as fears of an arctic blast dropped the total. Now, it’s back at 56 with the temperature expected to be in the 20s at kickoff. 

Even with a better forecast than initially feared, the model still loves the value of the under. Even though these teams combined for 83 points earlier in the season, the trends are pointing to a different result this time around. Eight of New England’s last 10 games have gone under, while Kansas City is on an eye-opening 50-23 under streak in games played at Arrowhead Stadium. The model says the under hits in well over half of simulations, and it’s also backing one side of the spread well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

The model also has locked in against the spread picks for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games. You can bank on both of these selections to hit over 50 percent of the time, so you should see them before you lock in your own NFL picks.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence during the NFL’s championship round schedule? And which sides of the spread can you bank on well over half the time? Check out the latest NFL odds for Sunday below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

NFC Championship Game: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, 56.5)
AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56)