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Win 71% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Chiefs 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. The computer gives them a 16.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl making them a good value at 6/1, 14.3%. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 27.5% chance at 3/1, 25%. The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 10.1 wins. Their 12 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 5-3 on the road and were expected to win 4.2. Their 87.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (73.7%). Anyone who backed the Chiefs in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +121 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +240 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-6 ATS). The Chiefs have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
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Win 70% of Neutral Field Simulations
Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Patriots are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 18.7% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 32.5% chance at 4/1, 20%. The 2018 season went as expected. They won 11 games vs an expected win total of 11.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 100% home win percentage was much better than expected (74.4%). They won 37.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (69.7%). Anyone who backed the Patriots in all of their games on the money line would be down -373 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Patriots are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.
Win 67% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Saints may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 17.7% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 34.9% chance at 4/1, 20%. Their 13 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 7-1 on the road and were expected to win 5. They won 6 at home and were expected to win 5.8. Anyone who backed the Saints in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +49 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). The Saints have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 67% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Rams may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 8/1, 11.1%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 16% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 32% chance at 4/1, 20%. The 2018 season went better than expected. They won 13 games vs an expected win total of 11.9. They won 75% on the road which was as expected (71.6%). They won 7 at home and were expected to win 6.1. Anyone who backed the Rams in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +110 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS).
Win 65% of Neutral Field Simulations
Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Ravens are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. The computer gives them a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl making them a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 9.8% chance at 10/1, 9.1%. The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9.3 wins. Their 10 actual wins was above expectation. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 3.7. Their 75% home win percentage was as expected (69.6%). Anyone who backed the Ravens in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +174 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -80 units risking 110 to win 100 (8-8 ATS). The Ravens have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 64% of Neutral Field Simulations
They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Chargers could take a step back next season. Their odds (14/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 6.7%. Their simulation based probability is 6.7%. Their odds (7/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 12.5%. Their simulation based probability is 13%. The 2018 season went much better than expected. They won 12 games vs an expected win total of 10.2. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 62.5% home win percentage was as expected (74.5%). They won 87.5% on the road which was much better than expected (53.6%). Anyone who backed the Chargers in all of their games on the money line would be down -155 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Chargers have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 63% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Steelers 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (14/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 6.7%. Their simulation based probability is 3.6%. Their odds (7/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 12.5%. Their simulation based probability is 7.4%. The 2018 season went as expected. They won 9 games vs an expected win total of 9.6. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 4.4. They won 5 at home and were expected to win 5.2. Anyone who backed the Steelers in all of their games on the money line would be down -37 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +30 profit risking 110 to win 100 (8-7 ATS). The Steelers have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 58% of Neutral Field Simulations
Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Seahawks are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. At 30/1, 3.2% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 1.6 percent. The 2018 season went much better than expected. They won 10 games vs an expected win total of 8.2. Their strength was at home. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 3.6. Their 75% home win percentage was much better than expected (57.6%). Anyone who backed the Seahawks in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +97 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +350 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-5 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Eagles 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (20/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 4.8%. Their simulation based probability is 3.3%. Their odds (10/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 9.1%. Their simulation based probability is 8.1%. The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9 wins. Their 9 actual wins was below expectation. They went 4-4 on the road and were expected to win 3.8. They won 5 at home and were expected to win 5.2. Anyone who backed the Eagles in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +349 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -390 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-9 ATS).
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Bears could take a step back next season. Their odds (16/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 5.9%. Their simulation based probability is 2.4%. Their odds (8/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 11.1%. Their simulation based probability is 6%. The 2018 season went much better than expected. They won 12 games vs an expected win total of 9.5. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 5-3 on the road and were expected to win 4.7. They won 7 at home and were expected to win 4.9. Anyone who backed the Bears in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +260 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +760 profit risking 110 to win 100 (12-4 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Vikings 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (16/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 5.9%. Their simulation based probability is 1.4%. They have a a 1.4 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 8/1, 11.1%. Their 8 wins in 2018 did not meet expectations. It was -1.3 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.7. Their 62.5% home win percentage was as expected (69.9%). Anyone who backed the Vikings in all of their games on the money line would be down -122 units. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS). The Vikings are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Cowboys could take a step back next season. Their odds (16/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 5.9%. Their simulation based probability is 1.1%. Their odds (8/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 11.1%. Their simulation based probability is 2.8%. Their 10 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +2.3 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 87.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (57%). They won 37.5% on the road which was as expected (38.7%). Anyone who backed the Cowboys in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +239 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +240 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-6 ATS). The Cowboys are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Colts may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their odds (20/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 4.8%. Their simulation based probability is 1.3%. Their odds (10/1) implied probability of winning the conference is 9.1%. Their simulation based probability is 3.3%. The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 8.6 wins. Their 10 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. Their 75% home win percentage was much better than expected (62.7%). They won 50% on the road which was as expected (44.1%). Anyone who backed the Colts in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +161 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +30 profit risking 110 to win 100 (8-7 ATS). The Colts have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Falcons are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their odds to win the conference are just 15/1, 6.2% and to win the Super Bowl are 30/1, 3.2%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 1.7% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.5 percent. Their 7 wins in 2018 did not meet expectations. It was -1.8 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they struggled. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.7. They won 4 at home and were expected to win 5.1. Anyone who backed the Falcons in all of their games on the money line would be down -238 units. Against the spread, they have lost -710 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-11 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Panthers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their odds to win the conference are just 30/1, 3.2% and to win the Super Bowl are 60/1, 1.6%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.8% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.3 percent. The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 7.9 wins. Their 7 actual wins was below expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 62.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (54.1%). They won 25% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.4%). Anyone who backed the Panthers in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +321 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -290 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-9 ATS). The Panthers are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations
They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Titans could take a step back next season. At 60/1, 1.6% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.2 percent. The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 7.5 wins. Their 9 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.4. They won 6 at home and were expected to win 4.1. Anyone who backed the Titans in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +408 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -80 units risking 110 to win 100 (8-8 ATS).
Win 49% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Lions are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their odds to win the conference are just 50/1, 2% and to win the Super Bowl are 100/1, 1%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 1.5% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.6 percent. The 2018 season went as expected. They won 6 games vs an expected win total of 6.5. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.2. They won 3 at home and were expected to win 3.3. Anyone who backed the Lions in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +270 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Lions have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Texans may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. Their odds (25/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 3.8%. Their simulation based probability is 0.6%. They have a a 0.6 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 12/1, 7.7%. The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 9.6 wins. Their 11 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 5-3 on the road and were expected to win 4.1. They won 6 at home and were expected to win 5.6. Anyone who backed the Texans in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +166 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS).
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Browns 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds (20/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 4.8%. Their simulation based probability is 0.8%. They have a a 0.8 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 10/1, 9.1%. Their 7 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +0.5 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 2-6 on the road and were expected to win 2.8. Their 62.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (46.4%). Anyone who backed the Browns in all of their games on the money line would be down -402 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +340 profit risking 110 to win 100 (10-6 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Broncos are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their odds to win the conference are just 30/1, 3.2% and to win the Super Bowl are 60/1, 1.6%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.8% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.3 percent. The 2018 season went much worse than expected. They won 6 games vs an expected win total of 7.3. They went 3-5 on the road and were expected to win 3.7. Their 37.5% home win percentage was as expected (46.1%). Anyone who backed the Broncos in all of their games on the money line would be down -257 units. Against the spread, they have lost -390 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-9 ATS).
Win 45% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Packers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their odds (16/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 5.9%. Their simulation based probability is 0.5%. They have a a 0.5 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 8/1, 11.1%. Their 6 wins in 2018 did not meet expectations. It was -3.1 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 1-7 on the road and were expected to win 3.3. Their 62.5% home win percentage was as expected (72.4%). Anyone who backed the Packers in all of their games on the money line would be down -154 units. Against the spread, they have lost -390 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-9 ATS).
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations
If the Buccaneers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 5 wins, it is not hard to improve. At 60/1, 1.6% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.2 percent. The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.3 wins. Their 5 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 1-7 on the road and were expected to win 2.6. Their 50% home win percentage was as expected (46.7%). Anyone who backed the Buccaneers in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +20 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -70 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-7 ATS).
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
The 49ers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. At 50/1, 2% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.3 percent. The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 6.2 wins. Their 4 actual wins was below expectation. Their struggles were primarily on the road. They were OK at home. Their 50% home win percentage was as expected (46.7%). They won 0% on the road which was much worse than expected (30.4%). Anyone who backed the 49ers in all of their games on the money line would be down -800 units. Against the spread, they have lost -710 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-11 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
If the Giants play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 5 wins, it is not hard to improve. At 40/1, 2.4% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.4 percent. Their 5 wins in 2018 did not meet expectations. It was -1.7 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they struggled. They won 37.5% on the road which was as expected (35.7%). They won 2 at home and were expected to win 3.9. Anyone who backed the Giants in all of their games on the money line would be down -375 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +30 profit risking 110 to win 100 (8-7 ATS). The Giants have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations
If the Jaguars play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. At 40/1, 2.4% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.1 percent. The sum of all of their 2018 money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 8 wins. Their 5 actual wins was below expectation. They struggled to meet expectations at home and on the road. Their 37.5% home win percentage was much worse than expected (55.6%). They won 25% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.3%). Anyone who backed the Jaguars in all of their games on the money line would be down -379 units. Against the spread, they have lost -490 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-9 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Bills 2019 season may look a lot like their 2018 season. Their neutral win percentage projects over 16 games to a similar record. Their odds to win the conference are just 50/1, 2% and to win the Super Bowl are 100/1, 1%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.2% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.1 percent. Their 6 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +1 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 50% home win percentage was much better than expected (39.9%). They won 25% on the road which was as expected (22.8%). Anyone who backed the Bills in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +664 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -290 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-9 ATS).
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Jets are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. But at 4 wins, it is not hard to improve. Their odds to win the conference are just 40/1, 2.4% and to win the Super Bowl are 80/1, 1.2%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.5% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.1 percent. The 2018 season went much worse than expected. They won 4 games vs an expected win total of 5.9. Home field was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 2-6 on the road and were expected to win 2.3. They won 2 at home and were expected to win 3.6. Anyone who backed the Jets in all of their games on the money line would be down -160 units. Against the spread, they have lost -600 units risking 110 to win 100 (5-10 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations
Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Bengals are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. Their odds to win the conference are just 50/1, 2% and to win the Super Bowl are 100/1, 1%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.2% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.1 percent. The 2018 season went as expected. They won 6 games vs an expected win total of 6.5. They won 25% on the road which was as expected (29.4%). They won 4 at home and were expected to win 4.1. Anyone who backed the Bengals in all of their games on the money line would be down -348 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Bengals have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 37% of Neutral Field Simulations
The Redskins may take a step back next season. They won a higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate. At 100/1, 1% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.1 percent. Their 7 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +0.6 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 50% on the road which was much better than expected (33.3%). They won 3 at home and were expected to win 3.7. Anyone who backed the Redskins in all of their games on the money line would be down -175 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Redskins have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 32% of Neutral Field Simulations
If the Raiders play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Improvement on 4 wins is somewhat expected. Their odds to win the conference are just 50/1, 2% and to win the Super Bowl are 100/1, 1%. Their simluation based chances to win the conference are 0.2% and their chances to win the Super Bowl are 0.1 percent. Their 4 wins in 2018 did not meet expectations. It was -1.2 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. Their struggles were primarily on the road. They were OK at home. They went 1-7 on the road and were expected to win 2.6. Their 37.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (32.3%). Anyone who backed the Raiders in all of their games on the money line would be down -520 units. Against the spread, they have lost -500 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-10 ATS).
Win 32% of Neutral Field Simulations
If the Cardinals play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. But at 3 wins, it is not hard to improve. At 100/1, 1% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.1 percent. The 2018 season went much worse than expected. They won 3 games vs an expected win total of 4.8. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they struggled. They won 25% on the road which was much better than expected (18.3%). They won 1 at home and were expected to win 3.4. Anyone who backed the Cardinals in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +156 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -180 units risking 110 to win 100 (7-8 ATS). The Cardinals have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.
Win 31% of Neutral Field Simulations
They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Dolphins could take a step back next season. At 300/1, 0.3% odds-makers they are a longshot to win the Super Bowl. Their Super Bowl chances in simulations stand at 0.1 percent. Their 7 wins in 2018 exceeded expectations. It was +1 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 75% home win percentage was much better than expected (47.7%). They won 12.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (27.2%). Anyone who backed the Dolphins in all of their games on the money line would be down -550 units. Against the spread, they have lost -80 units risking 110 to win 100 (8-8 ATS). The Dolphins are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.
Kansas City Chiefs
What we learned about the Chiefs this week – Arrowhead Pride
Kansas City Chiefs
Who will be RB2 in Kansas City Chiefs offense in 2020? – KC Kingdom